Market Intel Team|20 January 2023
- Europe is experiencing an unseasonably warm winter and as a result, milk production is on the rise – especially as favorable weather has been paired with strong milk prices. Germany and the Netherlands are recording shockingly strong volumes increases over prior year levels, which is boosting the region’s (EU-27+UK) milk production expectations in November to around 2.5% growth from prior year (data is still missing from Spain, Bulgaria and Malta). A 2.5% growth rate would be the strongest increase reported since February 2018, though it may end up being slightly below that as Spain has been recording negative figures for much of 2022.
- Skim milk powder (SMP) exports were more in line with November 2020 and 2019, UP 5,438MT (+10%) from 2021, after trending below prior year levels for most of 2022. Higher total shipments were supported by increased exports to Algeria (+10,670MT or +540%), Morocco (+2,146MT or +144%), and Yemen (+2,134MT or +91%). However, exports to Southeast Asia declined with shipments to the Philippines (-3,355MT or -64%), Indonesia (-1,395MT or -43%), and Malaysia (-1,288MT or -42%) falling below the prior year. Year-to-date, SMP exports remain below 2021 as larger exports to North Africa were unable to overcome the crucial losses to Southeast Asia and China.
- Total whole milk powder exports in November fell to their lowest volume on record with data back to 2002 driven by waning production and weaker demand, especially as the EU is priced well above Oceania. Declining shipments most notably to Nigeria (-1,545MT or -91%), Dominican Republic (-946MT or -77%), Senegal (-829MT or -75%), and Cameroon (-633MT or -94%) have pushed total exports lower versus the prior year despite a significant increase in exports to Oman (+2,541MT), Kuwait (+798MT), and Saudi Arabia (+533MT). Year-to-date, total whole milk powder exports are DOWN due to losses to Nigeria (-21,317MT), United Arab Emirates (-7,846MT), and Algeria (-10,920MT) as countries replace whole milk powder with the less expensive fat-filled milk powder alternative.
- Cheese exports remain below prior year levels for the third consecutive month driven by reduced volumes to Ukraine (-2,515MT or -48%), China (-1,049MT or -35%), and Egypt (-1,375MT or -62%). Although there were smaller declines seen to top destination countries, US (-27MT or -0.2%), and Japan (-327MT or -4%) and an increase in exports to South Korea (+1,546MT or +34%) and Algeria (+1,821MT or +139%) the losses seen to other countries were enough to keep total cheese exports below 2021 levels.
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